J Syst Evol

• Research Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial patterns and climatic correlates of diversification rates of conifers across the world

Hong Qian1†*, Michael Kessler2†, Shenhua Qian3,4   

  1. 1 Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, 1011 East Ash Street, Springfield, IL 62703, USA

    2 Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    3 Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region's Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China.

    4 College of Environment and Ecology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China

    These authors contributed equally to this work.

    *Author for correspondence. E-mail: hong.qian@illinoisstatemuseum.org

  • Received:2025-12-16 Accepted:2026-02-11

Abstract: Conifers only have about 670 species worldwide but are one of the ecologically and economically most important plant groups. Their current distributions resulted from the interplay of speciation, dispersal and extinction, with some major clades restricted to the Northern Hemisphere whereas others are restricted to the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we explore global geographic patterns of mean diversification rate (MDR), representing recent speciation dynamics, within genera of conifers, and relate MDR to regional species richness and climatic conditions. We find that MDR is negatively correlated with species richness and latitude at a global scale; that latitudinal patterns and relationships of MDR to climatic factors differ between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; that MDR is correlated positively with mean annual temperature and negatively with annual precipitation; that temperature-related variables explain less variation in MDR than precipitation-related variables in the Northern Hemisphere but more variation in the Southern Hemisphere; and that climate extreme variables explain more variation in MDR than climate seasonality variables. These patterns differ in many important details from those seen in angiosperms. We hypothesize that small land surface area and the associated paucity of broadly fragmented habitats may limit speciation in the wind-dispersed conifers, which requires broad spatial separation between diverging populations. Furthermore, conifer diversification peaks in arid habitats, probably related to numerous anatomical, physiological, and life strategy traits. Such differences between conifers and other major groups of land plants allow us to infer generalities of how geographic and climatic drivers and life history traits interact to determine the diversification dynamics of plants.

Key words: climate, environmental gradient, gymnosperms, latitudinal diversity gradient, speciation, species richness